CJ

Staff Engineer Layoff Survival Guide: Lessons from 2008, 2020, and 2023

Staff engineering during economic uncertainty

The view from my desk during the 2020 layoffs

March 2020. I'm on a Zoom call with 47 engineers. Half of them are about to lose their jobs. I know who. They don't.

That was my second recession as a staff engineer. The first one (2008) I got laid off. The third one (2023) I helped decide who stayed.

Here's what nobody tells you about surviving tech downturns.

The Brutal Truth About Who Gets Cut

It's Not About Performance

2008: I had the best performance reviews on my team. Still got cut. Why? I was expensive and working on a "non-essential" project.

2020: We kept the mediocre engineer who knew our billing system inside-out. Let go the brilliant engineer working on our future platform.

2023: The first cuts were contractors, then the most recent hires, then anyone on experimental projects.

The pattern is always the same:

  1. Revenue-critical goes last - If you touch money, you're safer
  2. Institutional knowledge matters - That legacy system nobody else understands? Job security
  3. Cost per impact - Two mid-levels often survive over one senior

I've seen staff engineers with 15 years at a company get cut while a junior who maintains the payment system survived three rounds.

How to Actually Prepare (Before the Layoffs Start)

1. Follow the Money

Every quarter, map out where revenue comes from:

Product A: $40M (60% of revenue)
├── Payment processing (Team: 3 engineers)
├── User analytics (Team: 8 engineers) ← Overstaffed
└── Core features (Team: 5 engineers)

Product B: $10M (15% of revenue) 
└── Entire team: 12 engineers ← Danger zone

If your team's revenue per engineer is below company average, start planning.

2. Build Your Evacuation Plan

When I survived 2008, I started keeping what I call the "Go Bag":

  • Resume updated quarterly (not annually)
  • Three references who'll answer within 24 hours
  • 6 months expenses in cash (not stocks)
  • Side projects deploying to prod (proves you're current)
  • Network warm (coffee chats when you don't need them)

The engineers who struggled most in layoffs? The ones who hadn't interviewed in 5 years and whose entire network was inside the company.

3. Skills That Survive Recessions

What gets hired in downturns:

  • Fixing broken systems (not building new ones)
  • Cutting costs (cloud optimization, vendor reduction)
  • Maintaining revenue systems
  • Security and compliance (regulations don't pause)

What doesn't:

  • Innovation labs
  • R&D projects
  • "Future of X" initiatives
  • New market expansion

In 2020, I watched our "AI Innovation Lab" disappear overnight while the team keeping our 10-year-old Java monolith running got raises.

If You're a Manager During Layoffs

The Shit Nobody Prepares You For

First time managing through layoffs? Here's what HR won't tell you:

1. You'll know before your team Sometimes weeks before. You'll sit in 1:1s discussing career growth with someone you know is getting cut. It's soul-crushing.

2. The list changes 2023: My initial cut list had 5 names. Final list? Only 2 were the same. Politics, last-minute budget changes, and someone's golf buddy intervening. Plan for chaos.

3. Survivors guilt is real The team that remains? They're not relieved. They're angry, scared, and wondering why them and not their friend. Productivity crashes for months.

How to Lead When Everything Sucks

Document everything:

## Team Impact Assessment
- Project X: Losing Sarah means 3-month delay minimum
- System Y: Only Bob knows this, need knowledge transfer
- Customer Z: Their dedicated engineer is on the cut list

I saved three jobs by showing leadership exactly what would break.

Fight for your people (but pick your battles):

  • ❌ "They're a great engineer" (everyone says this)
  • ✅ "They're the only one who knows our payment integration"
  • ✅ "Cutting them delays Project X by $2M worth of contractor costs"

Prepare your survivors: Before layoffs hit, cross-train aggressively. In 2020, we did "bus factor reduction sprints" - saved us when cuts came.

The Playbook That Actually Works

Month -6: See the Signs

  • Hiring freeze emails
  • "Efficiency" becomes every third word
  • Stock price below IPO/last funding
  • Executives jumping ship
  • Surprise "all hands" meetings

Month -3: Position Yourself

  1. Volunteer for the painful project - That legacy migration everyone avoids? Take it.
  2. Document everything - Become irreplaceable through bus factor
  3. Cut your own costs - Cancel that $50K tool before they make you
  4. Ship visible wins - Small improvements > grand visions

Month 0: Layoffs Hit

If you survive:

  • Don't celebrate publicly
  • Reach out to cut colleagues immediately
  • Document their work before knowledge disappears
  • Expect 2x workload at same pay

If you're cut:

  • Negotiate everything (I got 2 extra months by asking)
  • File for unemployment same day
  • Update LinkedIn before the press release
  • Use the company email while you have it

Month +3: The New Reality

Survivors face:

  • 50% more work
  • 0% more pay
  • Hiring freeze for "rebuilding"
  • Constant fear of round 2

This is when the second wave of departures hits - voluntary ones.

Hard-Won Lessons

From Getting Laid Off (2008)

  • Severance isn't guaranteed - I got 2 weeks. Period.
  • COBRA is expensive AF - Budget $2K/month for family healthcare
  • First to go, last to rehire - Took 14 months to match my old salary
  • Your manager can't save you - They tried. Corporate didn't care.

From Surviving (2020)

  • Survivor workload is brutal - Inherited 3 people's responsibilities
  • Good people leave anyway - Lost half the remaining team in 6 months
  • Promises mean nothing - "No more cuts" lasted exactly 90 days
  • Document or die - Only reason I managed the chaos

From Deciding Who Goes (2023)

  • The list is political - Merit is maybe 50% of the decision
  • Revenue is everything - Every argument must tie to money
  • Transparency helps - Team knew criteria, made it less personal
  • You'll lose friends - Some colleagues never spoke to me again

The Uncomfortable Truth

After three recessions, here's what I know:

  1. Company loyalty is dead - They'll cut you in a heartbeat. Act accordingly.
  2. Cash beats equity - Options are worth $0 in a downturn
  3. Skills trump titles - "Staff at Google" means less than "can fix broken systems"
  4. Network constantly - The job that saves you comes from someone you helped 3 years ago
  5. Revenue proximity = job security - Everything else is philosophy

The engineers who thrive in downturns aren't the best coders. They're the ones who prepared when times were good.

Your Action Plan (Do This Today)

  1. Calculate your runway: Expenses × 6 months = minimum cash needed
  2. Update your LinkedIn: Not just your resume - post content, be visible
  3. Pick a side project: Deploy something real, keep skills sharp
  4. Map your revenue impact: Can you quantify your value in dollars?
  5. Build your network: Three coffee chats this month with people outside your company

The next recession is coming. It always is.

The question isn't whether you'll face layoffs in your career - it's whether you'll be ready when you do.

I learned that the hard way in 2008. By 2023, I was the one holding the axe. The view isn't better from either side.

Prepare accordingly.